The Adventurous Investor

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Monday Macro – Great China equities chart plus which sectors have rebounded hardest

I’ve been contemplating how we should think about the stock market reaction to the virus. One possible way to contemplate the chaos of the last few weeks is to think about waves of reaction i.e the first order followed by… Continue reading →

Thoughts for the weekend – Pettis, Edwards and Gave on what might happen next

So, one of the great advantages I have is that I get a constant stream of not only tactical ideas and research but deeper, more strategic discussion. Three in particular stand out over the last week, all with some really… Continue reading →

More on EM, European Divis crashing and S&P500 at 1800

A short note today, mostly brimming with bad news. First off, the highly respected European equities team at Morgan Stanley have brought out a quick note on the state of European dividends. The message, as you might assume, is terrible…. Continue reading →

Decarbonisation hasn’t gone away…plus retailers who might survive

One of the most interesting sub-themes that have emerged over the last few troubled weeks has been the issue of air pollution. I’m sure you’ve seen many articles showing that traffic flows have declined markedly which has resulted in much… Continue reading →

More on those developing world risks

I was busily WhatsApp-ing yesterday with a few friends around the world and had this back from an old India based friend….which I think horribly sums up my fears….lets hope that none of this pans out…. “The developing world –… Continue reading →

Monday Macro – The mirage of earnings estimates in a war, and watching India

Interesting to contemplate that last week the “Nikkei 225 experienced its biggest weekly gain since 1950 and the weekly rise in Dow being the fastest since the 1930s” according to analysts from SocGen . That said the markets are still… Continue reading →

Any Lower? Plus $100 oil….?

We’re now into that fun guessing game where we all collectively wonder whether we’ve seen the bottom. Personally, I’m not convinced and took some more tactical profits on stocks such as Pershing. Looking at my own portfolio’s I’d factored in… Continue reading →

Beware the young (!) plus some more fund dislocations

I’ve no intention of providing a running commentary on the absolute tsunami of deep-dive analyses into the data emerging from the CoVid crisis but I do recommend tracking down a PDF which acts as a fantastic summary – it’s called… Continue reading →

Why panic buying is perfectly rational. Cue the impending Share buyback Ice Age

As I wandered around my local supermarket (in the suburbs) at the weekend, I kept thinking about my favourite author, J G Ballard and his worry that the veneer of civilisation is wafer-thin. Obviously, there was no toilet roll, but… Continue reading →

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