Quick note today.

Charles Robertson, Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist, has been digging around on data for electricity, education, investment levels in the Emerging and Frontier markets.

The idea is simple – those countries that invest in the right infrastructure are more likely to kick start rapid GDP growth, but that means thinking through how they industrialise.

Robertson has now added 2019 data to an existing long line of data.

In the Frontier markets category, “Vietnam, Bangladesh and Morocco are big success stories. High investment should support high growth in each…..Big improvements in Nigeria and Ghana. Both now at 25%+ of GDP. Gently better in Egypt. Flat and bad in Pakistan. Worse in Tunisia”. He’s also “positively surprised by high investment figures in Nigeria and Ghana, and disappointed by weak investment figures in Kenya, Pakistan and Tunisia”. One key measure is investment to GDP ratios – “We need investment of 25% of GDP or more to see convergence towards rich countries”

Figure 1: Electricity (300+ is good), education (70%+ is good), investment (25%+ of GDP is good) and manufacturing – ranked by electricity consumption from top left to bottom right
  Kwh per capita (2016) Adult literacy (latest) Investment to GDP (2019) Manufacturing, value added % of GDP, (2017)   Kwh per capita (2016) Adult literacy (latest) Investment to GDP (2019) Manufacturing, value added % of GDP, (2017)
Seychelles 3,454 96 26 6 Zimbabwe 491 89 N/A 8
Jordan 1,779 98 17 16 Pakistan 477 59 16 12
Egypt 1,771 71 18 16 Mozambique 402 61 42 9*
Armenia 1,769 100 17 10 Papua New Guinea 400 62 N/A 2***
Namibia 1,674 91 13 11 Cambodia 371 81 24 16
Vietnam 1,544 95 27 15 Ghana 340 79 26 4
Tajikistan 1,484 100 21 10* Bangladesh 332 74 32 17
Colombia 1,400 95 22 11 Angola 329 66 20 N/A
Tunisia 1,339 79 16 15* Sudan 306 61 N/A 6 in 2011
Moldova 1,239 99 26 12 Cameroon 271 77 30 15*
Gabon 1,046 85 30 3** Ivory Coast 257 47 23 13
Iraq 1,015 50 N/A 2* Senegal 227 52 32 11
Jamaica 1,006 88 25 8 Rep of Congo 215 80 22 8*
India 874 74 30 15 Kenya 173 82 14 8
Laos 831 85 N/A 7 Nigeria 135 62 26 9
Indonesia 825 96 34 20 Tanzania 117 78 40 6
Morocco 819 74 32 16* Benin 109 42 26 12
Philippines 758 98 26 19 Ethiopia 99 52 39 6
Zambia 660 87 43 8 Uganda 85 77 27 8
Sri Lanka 597 92 27 19 Rwanda 46 73 26 6
* 2016 ** 2015 *2016 ***2014
Source: UN, World Bank, IMF