S&P Dow Jones reports that overall global markets gained 4.15% (after last month’s 2.27% gain), as the YTD was up 9.10%. For the month, 40 of the 50 markets gained (with all developed markets up), up from 33 last month and up from 36 the month before that. The U.S. outperformed for the month, up 5.09% versus 2.95% for non-U.S. markets.

By contrast emerging markets posted a 2.76% gain for the month, after last month’s 1.75% decline and the prior month’s 1.45% gain, as the three-month gain was 2.43%, the YTD return was 5.33%, and the one-year return was 44.57%. The two-year return was 23.10% and the three-year return was 16.01%.

For April, 16 of the 25 markets gained, up from March’s 11 and February’s 15. Poland did the best, gaining 9.83% for the month, up 5.13% YTD and up 40.16% for the one-year period. Greece was next, up 9.04% for the month, up 14.73% YTD, and up 61.08% for the one-year period, followed by Taiwan, up 8.95% for the month, up 20.84% YTD, and 72.76% for the one-year period. Chile did the worst, falling 8.62%, up 5.62% YTD, and up 17.37% for the one-year period.

S&P Global Broad Market Index(BMI) Global 30/04/2021
US MKT BMI MEMBER FROM 11/3/2020 1-MONTH YTD 1-YEAR 2-YEAR 3-YEAR
$70 Poland 33.74% 9.83% 5.13% 40.16% -7.15% -15.60%
$27 Greece 64.65% 9.04% 14.73% 61.08% 19.15% -7.01%
$1,450 Taiwan 42.22% 8.95% 20.84% 72.76% 80.73% 77.78%
$471 Denmark 18.59% 6.90% 3.46% 50.16% 62.69% 58.51%
$279 Finland 22.69% 6.56% 8.47% 49.72% 31.67% 14.71%
$495 Brazil 28.06% 6.38% -5.42% 46.54% -9.35% -12.76%
$215 Belgium 26.69% 6.31% 4.75% 29.97% -0.14% -10.16%
$2,000 France 33.16% 6.07% 10.59% 50.24% 19.86% 12.04%
$190 Israel 27.14% 5.70% 6.73% 38.47% 28.59% 48.22%
$262 Saudi Arabia 32.91% 5.49% 21.85% 49.58% 11.92% 28.58%
$9 Czech Republic 41.45% 5.47% 10.28% 49.82% 5.92% -6.75%
$1,532 Australia 26.00% 5.38% 7.17% 52.50% 24.11% 22.87%
$362 Singapore 34.82% 5.31% 14.54% 51.69% 21.77% 10.62%
$89 New Zealand 11.15% 5.11% -5.12% 38.67% 37.83% 50.91%
$42,970 United States 26.30% 5.09% 11.49% 48.68% 44.16% 59.27%
$55 Kuwait 13.60% 5.09% 11.12% 29.01% 10.83% 32.13%
$489 Spain 32.31% 5.05% 6.53% 38.03% -2.87% -13.18%
$863 Sweden 31.68% 4.94% 11.22% 71.66% 60.58% 60.49%
$823 Netherlands 36.83% 4.93% 16.31% 71.75% 61.39% 61.15%
$2,184 Canada 28.64% 4.43% 13.85% 47.65% 26.66% 27.53%
$67,525 Developed 25.64% 4.33% 9.61% 46.03% 35.41% 39.46%
$2,985 United Kingdom 29.73% 4.23% 9.79% 32.00% 0.92% -5.42%
Global 24.95% 4.15% 9.10% 45.85% 34.02% 36.78%

This week alternatives’ specialists at Ocean Wall report on the Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage 1Q21 Global Investor Survey which was published last week. This reports that investor sentiment remains near highs over the past decade. With regards to strategies, interest levels for Global Macro, Commodities, and Event Driven funds increased to recent highs, while interest for Credit and Quant Equity funds declined to multi-year lows. With SPACs in focus in early 2021, ~3/4 investors noted that they currently have exposure to SPACs, but interestingly, less than 20% of those with SPAC exposure plan to increase their allocations to SPACs in the next 6-12 months.

And what about earnings? Deutsche Bank analysts report that S&P 500 earnings are on track for a fourth consecutive quarter of large beats. Breadth (86%) is running at the upper end of the range of the prior 3 quarters; and despite the record upgrade coming in, so is the size (20%). While the headline is boosted by Financials loan loss releases, even excluding them the beat has been big (11.5%). Earnings beats have been broad based across sectors, while sales beats are at a new record.

The overall message is very bullish: Blended earnings growth is on track for a very strong 46% yoy, while sequential seasonally adjusted growth is on track for 20% qoq sa. All five of the groups of stocks and sectors in our earnings framework are on track for double digit sequential growth.

“The gap is closing: nearing peak upgrades. The bottom up consensus for 2021 S&P 500 EPS had already moved up from $174 at the start of the year to $182 in the run up to this reporting season. The large beats and upgrades to forward estimates have now taken the consensus up to $191. While it remains below our estimate of $202, the gap (-6%) has been closing fast, and suggests we are at or approaching peak upgrades, especially considering the +4.5% beat that has been typical. Historically, S&P 500 performance has been well correlated (46%) with changes in the bottom up consensus estimate and the upgrade/downgrade ratio (41%).”